Kenya travel to Windhoek this Wednesday with the hopes of upsetting the Gold Cup defending champs, Namibia, while the latter need to keep their record in tact to win the trophy for yet another year.
Both Kenya and Namibia are undefeated in this year’s edition and go into this fixture with the winner of the Gold Cup assured of a place in Group B through automatic qualification as Africa 1 alongside defending champions New Zealand, African giants South Africa and Italy. Coincidentally, the winner of the repechage tournament qualifier joins the teams in Group B; and it could be another African team. The runners up of the Gold Cup go to the Global Repechage in November to play against Canada, Hong Kong and Germany for the last spot in Group B.
There is mathematics though and it could get super calculative:
If Namibia wins the match then they qualify for the Rugby World Cup in Japan regardless of the bonus points awarded to Kenya.
Namibia : 24 points / Kenya : 17 points (plus bonus points if applicable but Namibia will still have the lead)
If Kenya wins the match then they qualify for the Rugby World Cup regardless of bonus points awarded to Namibia.
Namibia : 20 points or 21 points with a defensive bonus points / Kenya : 21 points or 22 points with an attacking bonus point.
In case both teams end up with 21 points each, the winner of the match opposing both teams (away side) wins the tournament, hence in this scenario Kenya would win.
That’s good as it means that the winner of Saturday’s match is the winner of the Gold Cup and we don’t have a situation where the loser of the match could still be the winner of the competition.